Epidemic counters Europe's second "blockade"

On October 30th, on the first day of the "closed city" in France, a man walked in the empty Tuileries garden.

The "closing the city" team has grown again. The United Kingdom, which has suffered a deficit in herd immunity, has become too vigilant. When the number of confirmed cases exceeds the million mark and the spread of the epidemic has become clear, the British Prime Minister once again announced that England will be closed on November 5. A month. On the same day, the Austrian Chancellor Kurz made the same choice and “blocked” the country for one month. From France and Germany taking the lead to keeping up with the United Kingdom and Austria, when Europe once again became the "epicenter" of the epidemic, more and more countries are trying to find a balance between safeguarding the economy and stabilizing the epidemic.

"Blockade" England
The advent of autumn and winter is a "catastrophe" destined for Europe. On October 31, local time, British Prime Minister Johnson announced that in view of the epidemic situation in his country, he planned to implement a large-scale ban in England again. It is understood that the new ban on feet will last from November 5 to December 2, including that local residents should stay at home as much as possible unless they go to school, work, exercise, see a doctor, buy daily necessities, etc.; non-essential shops , Entertainment and leisure venues will all be closed, but supermarkets and other shops selling daily necessities will continue to operate; bars and restaurants will only provide takeaway services, etc.

But this time the "closure of the city" didn't seem to be so violent. According to Johnson, kindergartens, elementary schools, middle schools, and even universities will not be closed under the new measures, and the new measures themselves have specific start and end times, and the degree of "foot restraint" is not as deep as the previous one. In contrast, on March 23 this year, the British government directly announced the country’s “closed city”, prohibiting people from going out unnecessarily, and closing schools and most shops. Until the epidemic slowed down, restrictions were gradually lifted.

However, with the resurgence of the epidemic in September, the "closure of the city" had to be put on the agenda again. In mid-October, Johnson announced a three-level new crown alert system for England. Soon after, the British capital London and Essex upgraded the new crown alert level from "medium" risk to "high" risk. At that time, the Mayor of London Sadiq Khan reminded the public that the next epidemic prevention work might be more difficult.

"Closing the city" is a last resort. On October 31, the total number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the UK exceeded the 1 million mark. From October 19th to 26th, the number of diagnoses in the UK exceeded 150,000 in a single week, reaching 156,344 cases. "In this country, as in most parts of Europe, the spread of the virus is even faster than our scientific advisers think in the worst case." Johnson said at a press conference on the 31st.

It is worth noting that Britain is not the only one who chose to "close the city" on the last day of October. On the same day, Austrian Chancellor Kurz also announced that Austria will again implement national "blockade" measures from November 3 to curb the spread of the new crown epidemic. However, Kurtz also mentioned that, unlike the first time, kindergartens, elementary schools and junior high schools will remain open during the "blockade" period, but high schools and colleges will be converted to distance learning, shops and barber shops will be available Continue to open under the premise of strictly complying with the epidemic prevention regulations.

Europe "out of control"
On the one hand, it is the soaring number of infections and various pressures. On the other hand, it is the devastating blow to the economy. It is too difficult to have both. Fortunately, more and more countries have a clear idea of which is important. Before the advent of vaccines and even "magic drugs", blockade may be difficult, but it may also be the only effective way to control the spread of the epidemic. Before Britain and Austria, France and Germany had already responded first.
On the evening of October 28, local time, French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron delivered a televised speech to the whole country, announcing that the nationwide blockade would be launched at midnight from the 29th to the 30th and last at least until December 1. On the same day, German Chancellor Merkel also announced that it would implement blockade measures to control the epidemic, starting on November 2 for a period of one month. "Our health system can still meet this challenge today, but at this rate of infection, it will reach the limit of its capabilities within a few weeks," Merkel said.
Spain, once the worst-hit area in Europe, is also inevitable. On October 29, local time, the Spanish House of Representatives approved the government's application to extend the state of emergency until May 2021. When the day before, Ioannina and Thrace, Greece, were upgraded from the third "orange enhanced surveillance level" to the fourth "red danger level" on the national epidemic map. For this reason, the Greek government decided to start from October 29 Blockade measures will be implemented on the above two places starting at 6 a.m.

Seeing that the rebound of the epidemic in Europe is gradually out of control, a more urgent problem has also surfaced: On October 30, local time, the World Health Organization announced that the new crown epidemic still constitutes a “public health emergency of international concern”. According to incomplete statistics from the European Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the occupancy rate of European intensive care units has doubled in three weeks.

At present, Italy has reactivated the temporary special intensive care units set up in Milan and Bergamo. The Dutch health department also stated that if the number of new coronary patients hospitalized continues to increase, then by the end of November, three-quarters of routine care resources may be consumed. . The Czech authorities also issued a similar warning.

But for Europeans who are tired of fighting the epidemic or even tired of the blockade, the new epidemic prevention measures may not be so easy to work. Protests and rallies against the government's epidemic prevention measures have recently appeared in cities in Germany, France, and Austria, and voices against the "blockade" policy have also appeared in the economic circles. The logic is also easy to understand. Blockade means work stoppage, and work stoppage means unemployment. The interlocking links have caused more and more opposition.

Difficult decision

With the counterattack of the epidemic, the economy has also begun to sound the alarm. Not long ago, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the increase in new crown cases and related anti-epidemic measures are affecting economic activities, and the euro zone economic growth rate is likely to turn negative again in the fourth quarter. German Federal Minister of Economy and Energy Peter Altmeier also stated that Europe is now at a crossroads. If the number of infections cannot be significantly reduced, the economy will not be able to sustainably recover.

In fact, if there are other options, no one wants to "close the city." Merkel has clearly mentioned that Germany's economic recovery prospects will depend on the control of the epidemic. Germany must do everything possible to control the spread of the epidemic, and the German economy cannot afford the second wave of the epidemic. In the first round of the epidemic this year, Germany was once known as a "top student" in the fight against the epidemic. Even so, Germany's economy in the second quarter fell by 9.8% month-on-month, which is the highest quarter-on-month comparison since the 1970 quarterly economic statistics the biggest drop.

Thanks to the slowdown of the epidemic, the overall economy of the Eurozone recovered in the third quarter. Preliminary data released by Eurostat on the 30th showed that after seasonal adjustments, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the EU and the Eurozone in the third quarter of this year increased by 12.1% and 12.7% respectively. Germany's economy, Europe's largest economy, also rebounded significantly in the third quarter.

Data released by the German Federal Statistics Office on the 30th showed that after price, season and working day adjustments, Germany's GDP in the third quarter increased by 8.2% from the previous quarter, which was better than market expectations.

But the problem now is that the epidemic has rebounded significantly, and it is hard to say whether the economy in the fourth quarter will be maintained. According to Y economist , the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has been poorly controlled, and the economic impact has been great. After all, developed economies are mainly consumer service industries, and it is actually difficult for the government to find out from economic development and epidemic prevention and control. A balance, so it caused the original impact.

During this period of time, due to the resumption of work and production, the opening of catering and other service industries, the economy is slowly recovering, people's contact has increased, and the weather becomes cooler in autumn and winter, which can easily lead to a rebound of the epidemic.

However, one point worthy of hope is that the blockade measures this time are generally not as strict as they were originally. Yang Delong said that the European and American economies themselves are already very poor, and they can no longer withstand the toss. The complete suspension of production and production will also cause a greater degree of unemployment. So this shock should not be like the first time, but it will affect the progress of their recovery. As for the stock market, people have already experienced it once, so this time there should be no such panic, which will affect the stock market, but the decline may not be very large.

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